and we know people in all of these campaigns or associated with the contenders and so far people are being very quiet and that's to be expected because they want as much of the splash so that they can get tomorrow morning. we're certainly hoping to get confirmation of the specific name and actual choice in the overnight hours and we're all working our sources to get that. >> so in terms of -- we talked about a lot of the pros and cons, kelly. how big of a risk would paul ryan's plan be? you were talking about a lightning rod for democrats. is that really the only con that we're looking at here? >> well, you could argue that republicans will already be tied to the ryan budget, the ideas that were in there about medicare because romney has said that he supports it, that those ideas would be a base of support for a campaign, let's say, in a state like florida where there are many seniors and people worried about the issues related to medicare.

of course, the ryan plan talks about keeping things the same for current seniors but they could change some 15 years from now. all of that is an idea. he's been a proponent of that. you can say that republicans will have to deal with that either way. it certainly puts it front and center if paul ryan is the choice. but he also brings vigor on the campaign trail. he's a great speaker. i've watched him deal with voters and he's very cap ti vating and that is helpful as well. >> kelly o'donnell in ohio, thanks for being with us. >> nice to speak with you as well. >> i want to get you to white house where our white house chief correspondent is standing by. chuck todd, are you with us? >> i am. >> hey, what do you know? chuck todd knows all. what can you tell us? >> msnbc has three sources all telling us that paul ryan is mitt romney's choice for the pick. but what we also can tell you is

that the campaign itself will not confirm that it is definitely ryan but we have three sources and we want to be completely transparent here with knowledge intricate about the campaign that paul ryan is the pick, that he will be the one standing with mitt romney tomorrow in front of the "uss wisconsin" that, indeed, they have been planning this in front of our face. the "uss wisconsin" wasn't a joke as some had indicated that it could be as a backdrop. it was a planned backdrop for ryan on this when mitt romney was telling me in that interview 24 hours ago that he wanted somebody that was going to be a visionary, if you will, that was going to be able to articulate and add to the political debate that he wasn't just throwing something out there, that he was indeed indicating that he had already made his decision and

that was paul ryan. >> and, chuck, what can you make about the significance behind the timing of this announcement? i was just talking to kelly o'donnell and we were wondering why he would make this announcement on a friday night. >> well, look, that is probably the surprise here, that when you talk to a lot of folks inside the campaign over the last week, they really sort of, you know, on the one hand publicly pointing to this bus trip privately kind of waving it off as a potential saying the weekend isn't necessarily the best time to roll out but, look, they want a couple of weeks. the convention -- they still have two full weeks before their convention. they would like to create some excitement. there's clearly been a turn in the negative direction for romney on issues of enthusiasm. sometimes even within the party. and i'd say that's not with the base and grassroots but enthusiasm within the elite inside the party, conservative intellectual. as soon as word started leaking

over the last week that ryan, indeed, it was being looked at under the shortest of short list, that they would be disappointing those folks if somehow he wasn't going to pick ryan. but, you know, look, in folks that i've talked to, as mitt romney's gotten to know paul ryan, the more he's liked him. the romneys have struck a very personal connection with the ryans. they didn't know each other very well until just before the wisconsin primary. and ever since have been sort of trading back and forth, very friendly on e-mail, very friendly on the phone and stuff. so they have a real bond that developed over the last few months. >> and, again, i was just speaking with kelly and we were going through the short list and going through the five candidates whose names have been bantered about. of course, you're saying paul ryan, all eyes are on him right

now. let's go over pros and cons and with kelly moments ago i was talking about how big of a risk paul ryan would be with his budget plan. i mean, and that is a real lightning rod for democrats. >> this is something that has been debated in republican circles, been debated in the romney camp, and a conclusion has come to that they were going to own the ryan budget no matter what. mitt romney in many ways had embraced it. there was question about how much of paul ryan's medicare reform plan he was definitely going to endorse. he had already left that open a little bit. i don't think there's going to be -- my guess is that there's not going to be a lot of daylight between the two, assuming that paul ryan accepts mitt romney's invitation to end up doing this or has already accepted it. and so, look, is there a downside? it makes the paul ryan part of the centerpiece. it's something that the mitt romney camp wanted to do. what is interesting about this pick is that you're going to have democrats waking up tomorrow morning elated,

strategists like david axelrod and you're going to have a lot of republican strategists happy. some are not going to be happy. this is going to make it a centerpiece in senate races. there's been mixed results. there's been a couple of results where republicans have gone on offense defending the plan and they've been able to blunt some of the attacks. there was a couple of special elections in house races where the medicare plan was the ryan plan, was the reason that republicans lost to satisfy. there's a campaign going on right now in north dakota, a senate race where, this medicare vote, this vote on ryan's plan, on the issue of medicare, has actually helped the democrat crate take a small lead in a red state. there's a lot of risk. it's going to put medicare, could put older voters that are very important to romney and also in a general election,

older voters and seniors not necessarily they are somewhat swing voters but they have been leaning republican over the last couple of elections. is president obama able to peal them off if the romney/ryan ticket is unsuccessful, particularly in places like florida and iowa with two large older populations, if they are unsuccessful in defending the ryan plan? that's the risk here but it makes it a bigger election. clear, bright lines, big choices. so it could mean that win or lose, the good news may be that what the november election result will be sort of either party will feel like they have a clear mandate from the american public. >> well, looking at that being a big risk, wouldn't it be safer to go with someone like a rob portman who on paper makes a lot of sense, who has got this resume, if you will? >> well, look, i think you're going to make a strong argument for portman. you can make a governing argument, the fact that he knows

washington, i think there was a little concern that he doesn't -- he wouldn't bring enough to the ticket to deflect and he wouldn't give enough definition to the ticket. what mitt romney is lacking right now is sort of definition beyond being i'm not obama. and i think one of the things that romney wants to have now and one of the things that i think a lot of the republicans around romney believe that ryan is going to give them is definition. that it gives romney definition beyond sort of just the rich guy, or the rich guy that's not obama, that he needed more than that. and i think the concern of a portman or pawlenty, while both would have been good surrogates, i can make a case of portman could flip ohio. i'm not sure that ryan will make wisconsin a little more competitive. i'm not sure that he can flip it. and, you know, you can sit here and look at the demographics of florida and iowa and say, boy, he's going to make a few more states precarious. but romney needed definition and

what the ryan pick does is there's a sense of enthusiasm with the base in the party. there's a sense that you have a young, leading figure in the party. that was lacking as well. so it gives -- for mitt romney, this is risk and it's risk that needed. >> chief white house correspondent, chuck todd, thank you so much. i wanted to go ahead and recamp right here. nbc confirming that mitt romney is going to pick his running mate tomorrow morning in norfolk, virginia. we're going to carry that live for you at 9:00 a.m. speculation has been swirling about potential choices. we've heard several names, rob portman, tim pawlenty, marco rubio. it may be paul ryan generating

that vice presidential buzz. again, msnbc is going to be carrying that live tomorrow morning at 9:00 a.m. eastern. i'm in the msnbc newsroom. more live coverage right after a break.

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it's nonstop from 7:30 to 2:00. we're processing family members, friends into the institution to see incarcerated inmates. interaction with the family and friends is vital to their release. good morning, dear. i respect them. for what they -- what they're doing. not just giving up on -- on the guy, you know. saying, you know what, he's made his bed, he's going to lay in it. i'm moving on to somebody else. because what can he do for me while he's locked up? nothing. so it's all on her. so you got to respect these women for going through what they do. a few minutes ago, nbc news

has three sources telling us that mitt romney is definitely going to be selecting paul ryan, the wisconsin congressman as his running mate. the announcement is going to come tomorrow morning in norfolk, virginia. the backdrop, "the uss wisconsin." it's a backdrop at an event that had been planned for the last couple of days. the campaign was telling us, don't pay no attention to the "uss wisconsin." the campaign itself won't confirm what phone calls have been made between mitt romney and paul ryan but nbc has three sources that are saying that paul ryan is the pick. kelly o'donnell has covered paul ryan for a decade up there on capitol hill. obviously this is going to be seen by strategists in both parties as a great day tomorrow.

they are both going to be excited. people in chicago at the campaign and a lot of people in the romney campaign. but it's going to be for the republicans, too, right? >> i think there will be some surprise for some republicans because in washington the most frequent name i was hearing from members of the congress and establishment figures was rob portman. that's who they expected romney to choose. paul ryan is a dynamic figure, well-liked by many of his colleagues. one republican said that he didn't have any executive experience and i'm also told there are many who say this announcement would come day and now we know it will be 2012.

so there is a lot to work here with mitt romney and the budget name would change how medicare works down the line. he has ideas that are con conservative, things like that. it's a big part of the ryan story. but, chuck, as you know, he can also bring a common touch. i can also tell you that our colleague, carrie dan, is reporting that tim pawlenty, the former governor of minnesota, has confirmed on camera that he's not changing his own schedule, which means that he will not be in virginia. so that's by an implicit -- >> yes, another -- >> so that's another piece of information. >> kelly, i want to talk about -- look, you've covered

vice presidential candidates. not since 1964 has a sitting member of the house been put on a national ticket. is paul ryan ready for the crush? >> well, he has not been cast in a national way and that is something that will be significant. he has won house races in wisconsin by better than 60% time and time and time again and he's one of the handful of house members who are not a part of leadership because of what he's been able to do with the committee. and so we'll have to take a hard look now. there is an element that he has not been put through the scrutiny, where they are tested on issues like foreign policy.

but what he does bring is the kind of rule that a vice presidential pick can be. and that's someone that can speak very sharply about the issues of the day, the attack dog, if you will, who can be a strong debater. paul ryan has great presence in that sense. he's very comfortable in front of the cameras and relating to people. those are skills that the modern vp pick that he appears to possession. can he go through the level of scrutiny that his family will go through, that he will go through. >> kelly? >> yes. >> tell me this, what about house republicans, quietly, are they both going to be excited and nervous at the same time because this means that the ryan plan is front and center? we know that some republicans have not been crazy about that idea in their campaigns, even if they like it intellectually. >> that's true. at the same time so many of the republicans voted for the bill when it was in the house and they are as tied to it almost as ryan himself.

but it does bring it back to a front and center issue. they say they want to have tax rates brought down. they are the wonky issue that is not going to go on a bumper sticker but they feel it needs to be argued yet again. certainly democrats will see this as an issue. where paul ryan has an opportunity is the story he's been telling voters in his own district to a much wider audience and what he really brings, chuck, is a personal chemistry with romney. i was with them in wisconsin when they were campaigning and you can see the connection. that will be valuable for the next 90 oh days. you have to have some relationship and i think they do possess that. >> let me bring in andrea

mitchell. andrea, i want to make a tiny little correction. a friend e-mailed and said, hey, the last house member picked on a national ticket was geraldine ferarro. 1984. andrea, your initial reaction, paul ryan, we've thought all the tea leaves were pointing to ryan over the last 48 hours but now that it appears that that's the case, your initial reaction to this picket, romney/ryan? >> my initial reaction is that this is the game changing option among the three finalists as we know it. i heard from a source who cannot confirm that it's ryan but knows that the other two have been told. so that the portman and pawlenty have been told that it is not they, according to this single source that is close to one of those republicans. >> another important piece of the puzzle. >> it's a piece of the puzzle. this is going to be controversial.

according to, as you know, some of the obama people, they are at least saying that they think that this helps them and that they can try to make a big deal out of the ryan budget, a bigger deal it another thing to have him on the ticket. i think from a large measure of the republican pace and also political experts, paul ryan is exciting. paul ryan is really smart. he's a different choice and he is certainly more exciting and i think that was what mitt romney was telling you in your interview yesterday. that was the first hard indication that we had, that he wanted to do something that included vision, that included someone who could try to make him a different kind of leader if easy elected president. >> and andrea, let me throw in one more comparison that i've had of ryan. what we're seeing in romney/ryan is what we might have seen had

reagan picked kemp. >> yes. >> remember, jack kemp was the same type of conservative intellectual. that was the big paul ryan advocate this year. those people were jack kemp people in 1979 and 1980 and were dying for reagan to do it. maybe he didn't need it as perhaps romney needs this now. >> well, the one difference i would say is that they are both conservative on fiscal issues but jack kemp had deep roots in the african-american community. he had an urban constituency and jack kemp had a softer side, if you will, than paul ryan that we know of, at least. so far what we know of paul ryan is that even though he had working class roots and changes or rounds out the ticket in that respect, certainly in contrast to mitt romney, we don't know -- we don't know more, chuck, about

his other policies and the other cuts in his budget. >> i think i'm now tossing to veronica back to our studios at msnbc. >> hi, chuck. i'm here. >> great. >> hi, here in the msnbc newsroom, wanted to recap what exactly has been happening tonight. nbc news now confirming that mitt romney will be announcing his choice for a vp running mate. it's going to happen tomorrow morning around 9:00 a.m. speculation has been swirling about his potential choices. there's been a short list of

five different people, bobby jindal, chris christie, and also paul ryan and it seems like all eyes have been on paul ryan. stay tuned. we'll be right back. i'm chuck todd with nbc news. nbc news has learned from three sources close to the romney campaign that tomorrow at 9:00, mitt romney is going to select wisconsin congressman paul ryan to be his running mate. the campaign will not itself confirm that it's definitely ryan but the three sources with knowledge of the romney campaign have said, yes, romney is going to be the pick. nbc also knows that the two others on the short list, rob portman and minnesota

governor -- former minnesota governor tim pawlenty have both been told that they are not the pick. so the event is going to be tomorrow morning at 9:00 a.m. the campaign has confirmed. the backdrop, the "uss wisconsin." of course, so paul ryan, right now, is at home in jamesville, wisconsin. we know that there is a plane that is ready to go to fly him to norfolk. i'm going to go to my colleague, andrea mitchell, with a little more piece of news and this puzzle. >> they were told by tag romney, so mitt romney delegated one of his sons tag, according to this single source, to tell portman and pawlenty that they have not been chosen. this is the second time this has happened to tim pawlenty. he was deeply disappointed by not having been chosen and by the sarah palin pick.

but that, of course, has happened to him again. >> to sum up, tomorrow morning mitt romney will announce to the country who his running mate is going to be. it's going to be wisconsin congressman paul ryan. stay tuned. nbc news will have more as this story develops. i'm chuck todd from washington. we've been reporting for the last 20 minutes. nbc news telling us that the pick is paul ryan. we now know that, as andrea mitchell just reported, that tag romney, mitt romney's oldest son, was the person to give the news to both rob portman and tim

pawlenty that they were not the pick while paul ryan will not confirm, we have three sources telling us that it is paul ryan. tag romney, a mini development that we were following throughout the day, apparently tag romney's travels, if you will, to various spots and we speculated, could he be the messenger and he was. >> we were following a plane that apparently had gone from boston to midway in chicago and then to jamesville, wisconsin. i may not have all of the stops on this plane's recent travel. help me out here, chuck, if you've got that in front of you. >> i believe it's toledo -- boston to toledo. that's the plane that is ready to go. the plane over the last couple of days made its way to ohio. tag romney was with tim pawlenty

tonight and with paul ryan earlier today. tag romney represented mitt romney at the memorial service that paul ryan was also at in the sikh community that's been dealing with the terrible tragedy. >> chuck, perhaps we should take our viewers inside sort of the inside story of how we work on all of this. we've been working on this intense civil. we have some of our best producers and reporters with all of the possible contenders and they've been with them, practically living with them out in the driveways and very quietly talking to them and not reporting on it because it was all a protective process. and we were not going to go on the air until something was definitive. >> chuck?

>> yeah, andrea. >> i think one of the other things about this -- >> you know, we're in breaking news. i'm going to be completely transparent. we have breaking news and a lot of people talking to us and didn't know if -- there's a little thing called a key and suddenly i stopped hearing everything. >> sorry about that. what we do know is that tim pawlenty has come out, i think he just cold one of our reporter that he is keeping his schedule tomorrow. he's not flying to virginia. and we don't know whether he's going to keep his commitment on "meet the press" on sunday. >> andrea, let me stop you there. carrie dan, the producer you just mentioned, well, she's been following tim pawlenty around for it feels like months but it's definitely been weeks. carrie, you just spoke to tim pawlenty. tell me about it. >> at both of thoeps

fund-raisers, tag romney was in attendance. now, pawlenty arrived with his wife. he said that he will be keeping his schedule. it's in new hampshire starting at 10:00 a.m. one of those events is going to be a rally for romney here in the state. when he was asked if he was disappointed, he said, i didn't enter this thinking that i was going to be the presidential candidate. so i'm not disappointed. i'm excited about mitt romney's candidacy. romney is going to make a pick tomorrow and he's excited about it. he wouldn't confirm whether it was paul ryan. he said, you're going to have to wait until tomorrow but confirmed that he's keeping his schedule tomorrow. >> carrie, you've been following around tim pawlenty and paul ryan and governor jindal of louisiana. it's a fine line between

following them around and feeling like you're spying on them. how did tim pawlenty handle it? >> well, over the past couple of weeks -- earlier this week when i spoke to the former governor, he did seem to have a little bit more information. he became less transparent about his schedule on an off the record basis is. earlier in the game it was very apparent that he did not know how this process was going to play out and it was -- when reporters were around was very friendly and cordial. he would bring his dog over to introduce his dog and and he said, it was de ja vu.

>> i want to go to peter al alexander. first thing i want to ask you about is, boy, you have not seen so many senior officials with the romney campaign on the road since the announcement itself. beth myers who headed up the search, bob white, romney's best friend, stewart stevens, the chief strategist, eric, senior adviser, kevin madden, ann romney and her staff was there. this was being planned right in front of our eyes, wasn't it, peter? >> having just returned from their trip overseas where they went to london and even on that trip and the high stakes associated with his first major foreign trip of the campaign, there were only two senior advisers there. here, as you note, there are five of them, including ann romney. it seemed to be pretty clear

that something was up. we anticipated that there was going to be something occurring over the next several days. it came as a surprise that it's going to happen tomorrow morning, the announcement of paul ryan as his running mate. one other piece of trivia that we think is interesting in this whole piece of conversation is that beth myers, the one that mitt romney has put in charge of his vice presidential search throughout the course of the last several weeks and months, we were told that they were the only two who knew exactly what the plan for the campaign was beth myers is scheduled to head to wisconsin in the next couple of days where she will be moving her daughter in at the university of wisconsin where she will be a student again this fall. just another piece of trivia. so you have beth myers going to wisconsin with her daughter early next week. you have the "uss wisconsin" as a backdrop tomorrow. having traveled with this campaign, chuck, and having seen

this sort of one after another, this sort of testing ground, the candidates were brought with are mitt romney on the road, it was really clear that romney fed off of paul ryan. our producer at the time really shared the stage with ryan more comfortably than he had with any of the others as they passed the mike back and forth. that personal chemistry played a significant role in the decision that romney has made. another note to consider is we have the conversation about tag romney being the one who indicated that they would not be the choice. tag ryan is the same age as paul ryan. >> i've had people say to me that paul ryan has turned into the sixth son as far as mitt romney was concerned but the

policy walk son that he's always wanted. but peter, how's the campaign -- they are not sleeping, i'm guessing right now. they know all of this buzz is out there. do they like all of the buzz they are getting about ryan at least the initial reactions that are coming in, even as they are, quote, not officially confirming this? >> they keep a pretty good secret. there are a lot of reporters here on this four-day bus tour as it kicks off tomorrow and our reporters, producers and myself have been with them over the course of the day, having meals with them and they led on no decisions being imminent and they got a good night's sleep before they kicked off the series of events and, boom, the advisory went out that they were going to be making an announcement. they think romney hasn't gotten a fair shot. the narrative that played out when they were overseas in london, the comments that mitt

romney made questioning the preparedness there, they thought it got too blown up, that the foreign press was attacking romney. they were unfair about the story in jerusalem played out and the comments that mitt romney made, suggesting that maybe cultural differences should be credited for israelis having a better success rate or doing better than palestinians did and even one of the press aides made a comment, of course, swearing saying, kiss my -- whatever his choice of words were. that became one of the key lines of the trips as well. obviously by doing this and doubling down on this issue, they got new definition that they were looking for all along. >> peter, let's bring people up to date about the bus trip itself. paul ryan is going to be picked. tomorrow morning, 9:00 a.m. in norfolk. so we go virginia, north

carolina, and then after that, take me to the next two states, peter. >> after that on monday we go to florida and then ohio and a lot of the conversation has been focused on that day, tuesday, the final day of the bus tour but the early speculation is that the choice was going to be rob portman. the thought was that when romney arrived in ohio, that that would be a place to make the announcement. and when a new ad by priorities usa super pac that is run, by moung other people, bill burton who is no longer with the obama campaign but worked closely with the president in the past they were trying to set the tone,

saying while the president has been negative, there's would be a positive campaign. romney himself said it would be focused on substantive issues and focused on a vision for the future and that's what they are trying to accomplish over the next several days. >> peter, i'm going to guess here at this. while the official bus trip says virginia, north carolina, and ohio, i have a feeling that a fifth state is going to get added. we have the wisconsin primary on tuesday. they are not going to disrupt that. i wouldn't be surprised to see this bus trip extended and we have some sort of a wednesday, thursday event where the first time this ticket shows up in wisconsin. but there's an awkwardness in the state of wisconsin because there's a big contentious senate primary and that takes place on tuesday. peter, i would say my assumption is, don't assume you're coming home on tuesday, buddy.

>> i now want to bring in andrea mitchell. i think we have her back and have her ready. andrea, the longer this sinks in, the third stop of it is taking on the florida issue, the medicare issue head on. >> you know, this is a very gutsy play. this medicare issue, the entitlement issue, the whole question of seniors and the way the obama camp is going to campaign against the ryan choice is going to be confronted immediately and it shows you a number of things, that mitt romney believes that this is the core. that perhaps he believes that the poor economy alone is not going to ensure election, that he needed something bigger than that, that he needed to reach independents who are, from all accounts, from all of our polls, most concerned about the do nothing congress, most concerned

about the fact that people are not being specific about the future and how they will deal with deficit spending. i think it also has a possible appeal to others concerned about the budget deficit. that would offset the downside, which is obviously what is going to happen with senior citizens and try to ameliorate by going to florida. this is only going to be the third house member to be put on a national ticket. 1984, sitting member of congress with no experience. the crush, i know paul ryan is believes he knows what the national media is like. i know that paul ryan thinks he's been through the grinder. he ain't seen nothing yet. >> it is a real grinder. but this guy is very smart. let's just point out that he was at a staff level around washington for a very long time. our colleague, joe scarborough

was saying on "morning joe" that in their meetings in the prebeginnipr pre-gingrich era, it was always paul ryan, the one staff guy that had the numbers, talking about the contract for america and the details of the problematic side. he really has been around a long time and i think if any house member could handle this, it would be paul ryan. also, are remember, the sort of sp spunkiness and who got in the president's face when the house caucus took him on. it was paul ryan who said, let's be specific. tell us what you're going to do and you saw that expression on the president's face. that's a piece of tape that we'll play over and over again. he will still run for his house

seat and back when he was running for the senate and vice president. >> that's right. paul ryan will be on the ballot twice. so he will be above everybody on the wisconsin ticket and below himself on the wisconsin particular wet there when all is said and done. the other part of this pick is that it probably won't get as much attention. generationally, you know, there has been some talk about, okay, what is the republican party going to do? they are going to do another middle age white guy or do they do some form of diversity? now, it's not -- it's a white male but generationally they went to the next generation. >> this is a younger pick and livelier pick, arguably. one argument will be, the

downside is, while his family lives in wisconsin, he's a commuter. he did not move his family to washington, d.c. so the same downside that a rob portman might have also had. >> look, and he's -- he has been a washington -- before he was a ledge slade tif aide to sam brownback, that's the job he quit. when sam brownback was a member of the united states senate. early first term in '97, he quit that job. a member of his staff to go run for congress in 1998 he ended up winning that state. empower america was the best way to describe it, think of club for growth with a mile. it's probably, if you will, or everybody loved republican of all stripe of the ideological

spectrum. loved empower america because they love jack kemp and espouse the same ideology that the club does today. is that a fair representation, andrea? >> that is fair. the other thing about paul ryan, the ryan budget is best known for its tax cuts. some people believe that he would be much more flexible about the whole idea of taxes, of revenues if there were a proportional amount of tax cuts. now, we know what happened during the republican primary when famously ten to one was offered and the question was asked, would you take ten tax cuts for -- >> right. >> -- budget cuts for a tax increase. they said no. >> okay. you have ten to one. and what's paul ryan most known for on this budget debate? he was known for the no votes in bowles/simpson. >> exactly. >> that is going to come up in the conversation.

that is going to be the debate. by the way, this is going to be a very -- these are going to be substantive debates. for everybody complaining about the direction of where this campaign is going, this is now, you know, exactly what both campaigns always say that they want. we're having a large difference in ideology, a large difference in sort of what is is the relationship between the american people and the u.s. government. and this is -- >> this is contrast. >> it is contrast. it's going to be right there and you're going to have it articulated by four very bright people. this is, i would say, sort of a polished politicians when you talk about obama/biden, romney/ryan. >> when you were noticing how diminished this debate has been, you how awful it's been from

priorities usa that never ran anyplace but became part of the conversation and the rebuttal from the romney camp. you know, it got down to a very personal level not just from the surrogates but the candidates themselves and we were wondering, where is this thing going? this is going to be a chance for a campaign at large because you've got four very bright men all running against each other and the choice of ryan indicates that mitt romney wants to tackle the big issues. >> i want to know, andrea, we've been talking about how we cover this, how we track these guys. well, now we go to the person that's been on paul ryan duty for us. alex mo in jamesville, wisconsin. alex, what can you tell me? i know you physically knocked on the door. we know he's in there but he's not answering the door right now. >> reporter: that's right, chuck. i did knock on the door just

after the e-mail came out from the romney campaign confirming that the announcement would be made tomorrow in virginia. no one answered. there were on lights behind me when i was here right before the announcement came but as you can see now, it's pretty dark back there in the windows. we do believe congressman ryan and his wife and three children are inside. the last time i saw them was just a little bit afternoon this morning. congressman ryan attended the oak creek memorial service and funeral for those six people that were shot on sunday in his district here. and that was the last time that i've seen him today. he stopped at jimmy john's and got a sandwich with his chief of staff on his way home. it's been pretty quiet. he's expected to go to colorado tomorrow for a week with vacation when i spoke with him on tuesday back in oak creek, he said that he was going to be going to colorado for a week for vacation. we still don't know if that's going to happen. >> what's interesting, i had a source tell me he actually went and bought camping equipment a

couple days ago. he did this last year to prepare for this. i think he even joked with somebody else that he was fumigating an old tent. either he was doing the greatest head fake or just as a couple of days ago he didn't know whether, one, it was happening or whether it was happening before his vacation and they were going to let him have four more days with his family before a life change. >> reporter: when i spoke with him on tuesday he did tell me that he was going to take his tent out of storage, check it and make sure that everything is okay because they hadn't used it in a week. all signs point that he was going on vacation tomorrow with his whole family. we haven't heard whether that's going to change. >> right. >> obviously we saw today on flight tracker online that a plane did come from boston, stopped in chicago and came to jamville. we have no idea who is going to be on that private jet or if that has anything to do with paul ryan or mitt romney. but thats just another thing that's pointing us to believe that it could be paul ryan that

gets announced tomorrow morning in virginia. >> alex, stick around. we'll be coming back. kelly, i want to bring you back because the colorado trip reminds me of something. steve hayes over at the weekly standard, a year ago this time that paul ryan was on a vacation, i believe also in colorado and he came awfully close to jumping into the presidential race back in august of 2011. >> and there was a lot of talk that paul ryan weighed that heavily and then felt, given the role he had in congress, that he thought he could make a bigger impact trying to get through this autonomous budget, the ryan budget. and there was also a great deal of talk that he might try to go for the open senate seat, a long-time senator herb cole

retiring. so there were other aspirations that seemed to be evident, opportunities to step forward and yet he made the decision to stay in the house and to work as chairman of this powerful committee that did have a very large role in the national political conversation over the past year. so i think the ryan kids will now be on a vacation but it will be a bus tour through those states that you've outlined. >> i've heard the "uss wisconsin" -- look, it's one of the great battleships to tour in norfolk. no reason why congressman ryan's kids shouldn't have a good time there. >> as you point out, is he a different sort of generation than mitt romney but also they can tell the story about how paul ryan sleeps in his congressional office. that certainly bare bones. there's nothing affluent about that. his home remains in jamesville, wisconsin. he is a young man who i think it

was at age 16, his father passed away so he received social security benefits as a minor who was -- lost his father. he talks about that on the campaign trail. he understand the importance of the safety net. at the same time, he's talking about making big changes to how some of those programs might work. people will also find out when he worked for oscar meyer driving the oscar meyer mobile, people will remember there's a lig light-hearted side. there are a lot of things that people will learn about him. some of them are warm and fun. some we will find out will be putting him through that gauntlet. he is also catholic which is an interesting element here because catholics are a dominant voting bloc in some of the states that are in play.

that might be something that would make him at least get a look from some voters who might be in that narrow strand of independents. we've been told that he's popular among independents in his home state. that might be a quality that he can bring to the romney campaign. >> kelly brings up a good point about the midwest. the fact is, the short list, rob portman, tim pawlenty, paul ryan, besides being three white men, they had one other thing in common. they were all from probably the single most crucial part of the battleground if you're mitt romney. he's got to win multiple states somewhere between ohio and wisconsin. he cannot just went one. the math doesn't work. he's got to win at least two of those battleground states. throw those in there. you want to throw in a michigan, a pennsylvania in there. he's got to figure out how to get two. it actually made sense mathematically that it was a

midwesterner, either an industrial one or an ag one that was going to end up on the ticket. >> absolutely. although they talk about michigan, michigan has real roots for mitt romney. they are not spending money in either of those two states, as far as we know. because pennsylvania doesn't look that good for him. michigan perhaps a little better for him. but really it's all about iowa, ohio, and wisconsin and that part of the midwest where they really have to win one of those states. ohio is obviously critical. they think that ryan, as much as ryan can help with ohio, portman advocates said that even if he wasn't that well known, he was a very good organization man and had the nuts and bolts of the ohio organization to deliver the vote in ohio. but clearly they made a different calculus and they made a calculus that was both generational and substantive and

also the energy and the blue collar roots. very appealing. portman really was too much of a blue blood. >> well, and it's my understanding of the bush stuff. one thing about ryan, even though he's washington, he was not bush. what i mean by bush, he was a budget director for bush, also the u.s. trade representative. people close to portman thought that was his biggest negative and the bush years are not seen in a good light by swing voters and relate gating that sl a concern to some. >> george herbert walker bush is not going to be at the convention and -- >> that says everything. >> that tells you what you needed to know about that. also, by the way, in the kickoff at the campaign, there will be one other on the short list of

finalists, governor bob mcdonald will be there in norfolk. >> and one other thing, we're going to be parsing through this over and over again about the different ups and downs. one thing i want to bring up about portman in ohio, no matter how you poll a vp candidate, a potential vp candidate, there's nothing like the crush of national coverage and they become a household name in 27 hours. i mean, that's the way our world works now. you become so well known. so could you -- i don't think we can really -- i would just advise to throw out all of those other polls. i make the case that portman would have been a bigger help in ohio than maybe you could have tested before because you can't really -- >> exactly. >> you can't test the out like, what's it going to be like after he has the roll out, after he makes that initial speech? >> let me give you the best example that i can recall, which was the clinton/gore connection.

you can add the biographies up, look at their southern roots. until we left madison square garden day one on that bus trip across america. and, remember, at that point, a candidate didn't take bus trips. they took airplanes. they went from tarmac to tarmac. they saw very tightly controlled groups that were usually organized by the local political parties. the clinton/gore bus trip, the two couples who are that close now, but boy they were close then. they bonded and it was just not fabricated. there was a generational connection there and the fact that we were on the road, stopping and making it up as we went along, it was very ad hoc and we have yet to see how these four people because there really are four people involved. the spouses are very important in that initial impression. by the way a. little clue that was bothering me all week, when

alex moe who has been intrepid outside that house, when she reported about the presence of a film crew, it just seemed to me that paul ryan didn't need to be making campaign commercials for two days to be re-elected to that congressional district and when she asked about it he said, well, they hadn't made commercials for a while but it sure did have a feel of a bio pick that was being shot in his home town, in his community. >> i remember, you were obsessed with it. i poo-pooed it with you. nah, come on, maybe he hasn't made ads. it's not the romney people. >> seemed like a funny time to be making ads for a congressional district if you're in contention for the big job. >> i want to go back to alex moe. alex, you've seen ryan advocate for romney. give us a sense of what is the

ryan pitch for mitt romney? now he's got to do it a lot. oh, and i'm told we lost alex. >> she's probably knocking on his door again. >> look, she's not messing around. we've got to make sure that if she's looking one way, paul ryan might be sneaking out of the house and trying to get to the airport without us noticing. let me go to kelly o'donnell because she's seen romney be a romney advocate and sometimes a romney critic wanting more -- frankly, romney wanted more people defending his plan. is that fair to say? >> absolutely. and i think part of what you hear paul ryan talk about when he pitches for mitt romney is that the specifics will matter and that the ceo mind set of mitt romney, the way he has approached his work as governor or when he was serving the olympics in 2002 to come in and work on that and turn it around is the sort of turn around mind

set, look at the numbers, don't ignore the fact that there is a fiscal cliff. that's part of what paul ryan talks about and very passionately on the stump, to get people to not look away from the fiscal dangers that are looming for the country. he walks people through it in a very clear way and talks about the risks and the choices and he does it in an impassioned way but not in an exceedingly partisan way. by that i mean he's more of the processor tone than someone who is railing against the other party in trying to get people to understand the issues. and so he has tied that to mitt romney in a way as someone who has had to look at facts, look at numbers, and make tough decisions, not put decisions off. and part of what paul ryan has been trying to say is that washington has been broken in part because of the kick the can mentality, that they will decide to fix it next time, after the

next election. so this is where the wonk factor of paul ryan could be very attractive for mitt romney and he can communicate some of these really complex ideas in a way that is scary to the average voter, having sat through a number of town hall meetings where he goes through his power point presentation and you feel like you're in a classroom but he does it in a way that makes this information more accessible. he is a fairly good communicator in that sense. the other pivotal role he'll have is debating paul biden. he's a strong communicator but biden has been in that position for a long time and can he make a choice for the country. >> it's going to be something to watch. kelly o'donnell, stick around. we're going to do a top of th